Session - Solar activity as a driver for space weather and space weather modelling

Matthew West, Shaun Bloomfield

Space weather forecasting is frequently driven by the end observational products of solar activity (flare emission, CMEs and energetic particles). This is reflected in other sessions at this meeting, where inputs are used to develop forecasting tools, in order to look at the influence of the Sun on the interplanetary medium and Earth. Few sessions have been dedicated to investigating the physics underpinning solar activity, even though such work is important for understanding why, where and when flares and CMEs might occur. Such understanding is key to forming rigorous empirical and physics-based space weather forecasting tools.
There are a number of ways that the Sun influences changes in space weather on the short term (hours-days). These include changes in the structure of the corona (coronal holes, streamers, psuedostreamers etc), variations in irradiance, more dynamic events such as flares and eruptions, the emergence of active regions, etc. In this session we aim to present a broad spectrum of research on topics that have an impact on space weather conditions, and how they feed into models used in space weather prediction. We encourage the community to present new observations and models that might help to further our understanding of the causes and drivers of solar activity, and how these observations may lead toward the next generation of forecasting tools.

Talks and Highlighted Posters
Monday November 17, 14:00-15:30, 16:00-18:00, auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Poster Viewing
Monday November 17, 15:30-16:00, area in front of auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Talks and Highlighted Posters: time schedule

14:00-14:30 Invited - Observing Cycles, Seasons, and Storms McIntosh, S
14:30-14:45 Analysis of Solar Wind Sources during the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24 based on the AIA/SDO EUV Images Shugay, Y et al.
14:45-15:00 Five years of EUV Solar Irradiance Evolution, from Short to Long Timescales as Observed by PROBA2/LYRA Dominique, M et al.
15:00-15:15 Rising of the 24th solar cycle with PREMOS/PICARD and COSIR Cessateur, G et al.
15:15-15:30 Micro poster presentations
15:30-16:00Poster Viewing + Coffee
16:00-16:30 Invited - Initiation of Solar Eruptions Combining Models and Observations Poedts, S.
16:30-16:45 Flux Rope Formation and Eruption: the Physical Processes Underlying Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrence Green, L et al.
16:45-17:00 Observational Characteristics of CMEs without Low Coronal Signatures D'Huys, E et al.
17:00-17:15 Analysis of a C4.1 Flare Occurred in a δ Spot using SDO and SST Data Guglielmino, S.L. et al.
17:15-17:30 Predictive Science of Coronal Mass Ejection Schmieder, B et al.
17:30-17:45 On the February 14-15, 2011 CME-CME interaction Events and Consequences for Space Weather Temmer, M et al.
17:45-18:00 Heliophysics science, engineering and applications work carried out at NASA GSFC Hesse M.


1 Improving solar 11yr magnetic cycle prediction by using variational data assimilation in a mean field dynamo model Hung, Ching-Pui; Jouve, L; Brun, A S; Fournier, A
2 Detection of coronal holes and filament channels in SDO/AIA 193 Å images via geometrical classification methods Reiss, M; Temmer, M; Rotter, T; Hofmeister, S; Veronig, A
3 Real-time forecasting of solar wind high-speed streams Veronig, A; Rotter, T; Temmer, M; Hofmeister, S; Reiss, M; Vrsnak, B
4 Studies of Coronal Hole Properties and Geomagnetic Forecasts during the Current Solar Cycle Tassev, Y; Abunina, M; Abunin, A; Belov, A; Gaidash, S; Tassev, Y; Velinov, P I Y; Mateev, L; Tonev, P
5 Solar Demon: Real-Time Flare, Dimming and EUV Wave Monitoring Kraaikamp, E
6 High-Frequency Quasi-Periodic Pulsations (QPP) in Solar Flares, as Observed by PROBA2/LYRA Dominique, M; Dolla, L; Zhukov, A
7 Multi-Scale Percolation of Magnetic Energy and Currents as Mechanism of Flare Energy Release Pustilnik, L; Ikhsanov, N; Beskrovnaya , N
8 An Experimental Bases for the Creation of Radioastronomical Method of Short-Term Coronal Mass Ejections Forecasting Sheiner, O; Fridman, V
9 Origin of Space Weather Candidates in the Solar Atmosphere Dwivedi, B N; Srivastava, A K
10 Sporadic and Recurrent Effects in Cosmic Ray Intensity in Solar Minimum Kryakunova, O; Belov, A; Abunin, A; Abunina, M; Eroshenko, E; Malimbayev, A; Tsepakina, I; Nikolayevskiy, N; Yanke, V
11 Towards the Analysis and Communication of Flare Probabilities in Terms of the Probability Density Distribution. Andries, J; Devos, A; Verbeeck, F; Berghmans, D
12 Fast Magnetic Reconnection: the Trigger for CMEs Pucci, F; Berrilli, F; Velli, M; Scardigli, S
13 Solar Flare Forecasts, Based on SDO Solar Magnetic Field Observations and Knowledge about Extreme Events Lundstedt, H; Persson, T
14 Magnetic Helicity Flux and Flare Sites in Active Region NOAA 11283 Romano, P; collaboration, SWICO
15 Smooth Filament Eruption as Driver of a Geomagnetic Storm Palacios, J; Cid, C; Saiz, E; Cerrato, Y; Guerrero, A
16 The Signature of Flaring Activity in Multifractal Measurements based on SDO/HMI Observations Ermolli, I; Giorgi, F; Stangalini, M; Romano, P; Zuccarello, F; Criscuoli, S
17 New Flare Detection Algorithm And Flare List for PROBA2/LYRA Ryan, D; Dominique, M; Stegen, K; Dammasch, I; Katisyannis, A
19 Inferring the Global Structure of CMEs' Magnetic Field using Multi-Spacecraft Measurements Al-Haddad, N; Poedts, S; Farrugia, C; Lugaz, N
20 Trend of the Magnetic Helicity Flux during the Formation and the Destabilization of Flux Ropes Zuccarello, F; Guglielmino, S; Romano, P; Zuccarello, F
21 SoFAST: Continuously Monitoring Solar Activity as a Driver for Space Weather Bonte, Katrien; Berghmans, David; De Groof, Anik; Poedts, Stefaan
22 Distinct CME Evolution from the Low to the High Corona Pick, M
23-e Predicting Flaring Activity through Supervised Classification on Predictor Variables Delouille, V; De Visscher, R
24-e The multiscale magnetic pattern and the roots of solar activity Berrilli, F; Scardigli, S; Del Moro, D
25-e A Flare Forecasting Algorithm Based on Multi-Line Magnetograms Berrilli, F; Loumou, K; Jefferies, S
26-e A Two-Fluid Computational Model to Study Magnetic Reconnection in Reactive Plasmas Under Low Chromospheric Conditions Alvarez Laguna, A; Lani, A; Poedts, S; Mansour, N N; Kosovichev, A
27-e Automated Detection, Characterization, and Tracking of Filaments from SDO Data Buchlin, E; Mercier, C; Goujon, J-B; Vial, J-C
remark: the note e means this is an e-poster.