Fifth European Space Weather Week

 
Session: Poster Session 6 - Solar Weather: New Results, Analysis Techniques, Forecast Tools and the Outlook for Users (12)
Type:
Date: Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Time: 16:00 - 19:00
Chair: P. Gallagher, Trinity College Dublin
Co-chair:
Remarks: Posters will be on display all week.


Seq   Time   Title   Abs No
 
1   00:00   Monitoring the Solar Activity by LOFAR
Mann, Gottfried
Astrophysikalisches Institut Potsdam, GERMANY

LOFAR (Low Frequency Array) is a novel radio telescope for observing the universe in the low frequency range (30-240 MHz) with an up to now unknown high temporal and spatial resolution. The Sun is the most intense radio emitter in the universe. It is an active star. Its activity is accompanied with a strong variation of its electromagnetic radiation over the whole spectrum, i.e. from the radio up to the gamma-ray range. Thus, the radio emission of the Sun is a sensitive indicator of solar activity. In the framework of the LOFAR's Key Science Project "Solar Physics and Space Weather with LOFAR", the LOFAR community intends to offer radio images of the Sun at four different frequencies (40, 70, 150, and 200 MHz) each minute during the day Since the Sun emits these frequencies at different heights in the corona, this sample of images allows to get a 3D picture of the solar activity in the corona. These data can be the input of a space weather forecast.

 
 
2   00:00   An Analytic Model for Reconnection Dynamics in an Eruptive Flare Model
Seaton, Daniel1; Forbes, Terry2
1Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM;
2University of New Hampshire, UNITED STATES

Here we present a one-dimensional, analytic model for current sheets that form during solar flares. The model uses a method developed by B.V. Somov and V.S. Titov for Petschek-type reconnection and extends it to study the dynamics of an asymmetric current sheet during a solar flare. We determine the location of the x-line and the distribution of incoming Poynting flux into upward and downward directed reconnection jets. We find that, except at the very beginning of a flare when the current sheet is most symmetric, the x-line is generally located near the lower tip of the sheet. We predict that it should be low enough in the corona to be observed by X-ray and EUV telescopes. We find that in most cases the majority of incoming flux exits the current sheet through the upward jet, in contrast to previous studies that assumed as much as 50% of the incoming flux is directed into the downward jet and flare ribbons. We also consider the implications of this model on the interpretation of recent EUV observations of inflows and other current sheet properties during solar flares.

 
 
3   00:00   Periodicities in the Solar Wind
Tonoiu, Daniel; Maris, Ovidiu
Institute for Space Sciences, ROMANIA

The solar wind has a very complex structure determined by the corresponding complex and dynamic coronal structures - a mixture of open and closed magnetic field embedded into high temperature plasma. Moreover, the solar corona is subject to a lot of variabilities during the 11-yr cycle, most of them controlled by the underneath magnetic field.

We studied the periodicities which appear in the solar wind using spectral analysis methods. Our data series cover the 1964-2007 interval (Solar cycles nos. 20-23). We used the OMNI 2 data base for the solar wind velocity (1 hour resolution) and the high speed stream catalogues for the rapid solar wind intensity (processed with a 27 days - a Bartel's rotation - resolution). Our analysis identified the spectral components of the both data series. Finally, a comparative analysis of these periodicities with the ones of sunspot data series was done.

 
 
4   00:00   Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity during the Descending and Minimum Phases of the 11-YR Cycle
Maris, Georgeta1; Dobrica, Venera1; Demetrescu, Crisan1; Maris, Ovidiu2
1Institute of Geodynamics, ROMANIA;
2Institute for Space Sciences, ROMANIA

The relation between geomagnetic and solar activity has been intensively studied and it is today well-accepted although its physical mechanism is not yet well-understood. The geomagnetic variabilities are controlled by the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The daily geomagnetic indices (such as Kp, aa, Ap and Dst) measure the responses of geomagnetic field to the IMF and solar wind variations. High speed streams in the solar wind are responsible for geomagnetic disturbances.

Our paper analyses the properties of the descending phases of the 11-ys solar cycles nos. 20-23 reflected by the sunspot relative number as well as the eruptive phenomena such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. The limits of the descending and minimum phases of the four cycles were carefully determined taking into account the polarity reversals of the solar polar magnetic field that occur just after the 11-year solar cycle maximum as well as the specific limits for sunspot number, respectively. Thereafter we analysed the geomagnetic variabilities during the determined phases using the indices Ap, aa and Dst in comparison with the solar wind velocity and with the high stream parameters. This study was done in the frame of the IHY Coordinated Investigation Program #69.

 
 
5   00:00   Enhanced Prediction of Solar Flares by Studying the Magnetic Energies and Flaring Patterns
Qahwaji, Rami1; Colak, Tufan1; Wahab, Omar1; Ipson, Stan1; Dudok de Wit, Thierry2
1Bradford University, UNITED KINGDOM;
2LPCE - CNRS & Univ. d'Orléans, FRANCE

In this work we introduce our automated flares prediction tool, which are currently available publically at http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/. This tool provides real-time short-term prediction for the possible occurrence of solar flares in fully automated manner. It downloads the latest SOHO/MDI images to detect, group and then classify their sunspots based on the McIntosh classification. These classifications are then fed to automated computerised rules to deliver the probabilities for flare eruptions.

We will also be introducing some of our recent work on the development of automated imaging tools to calculate the magnetic energy of active regions in MDI images. The magnetic energy patterns for NOAA regions 10486 and 10488 are studied with respect to the flaring patterns of these regions. We will also introduce our future plans to conduct a large scale study on different active regions belonging to years of solar data to calculate their energies and then compare it against its flaring/non-flaring patterns. These findings, when integrated with our existing prediction tools, could provide enhanced prediction performance.

 
 
6   00:00   Rapid Solar Wind Appearance during 11-YR Cycle
Maris, Ovidiu1; Maris, Georgeta2; Tonoiu, Daniel1
1Institute for Space Sciences, ROMANIA;
2Institute of Geodynamics, ROMANIA

The cyclic behaviour of the high-speed streams in the solar wind is investigated during the solar cycles Nos. 2023 (19642007) on two different types of streams according to their solar origin: the streams produced by coronal holes (co-rotating) and the flare-generated ones. The analysis is performed taking into account the stream parameters. In order to apply the digital signal processing, the data series of the stream parameters and the relative sunspot number have been organized on Bartels rotations. The spectral components of the data series have been extracted as amplitude and phase. From the amplitude analysis, the same fundamental period, of about 11 years, has resulted for co-rotating and the flare-generated streams. The phase analysis has revealed the shifts of the two types of streams relative to the minimum and maximum of the Wolf cycle.

 
 
7   00:00   On 3D Reconstruction of Coronal Mass Ejections using SECCHI-COR Data
Mierla, Marilena1; Inhester, Bernd2; Marque, Christophe1; Rodriguez, Luciano1; Gissot, Samuel1; Zhukov, Andrei1; Berghmans, David1; Davila, Joe3
1Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM;
2Max-Planck Institute for Solar System Research, GERMANY;
3Godard Space Flight Center, UNITED STATES

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are enormous eruption of plasma ejected from the Sun into interplanetary space, over the course of minutes to hours. They can create major disturbances in the interplanetary medium and trigger severe magnetic storms when they collide with the Earth's magnetosphere. This is why is important to know their dynamics and 3D configuration.

Using data from SECCHI-COR1 and SECCHI-COR2 coronagraphs onboard STEREO mission which was launched in October 2006 we can inffer the 3-D structure of such events

We apply four methods for reconstructing the CMEs: 1) Local correlation (to identify the same feature in COR Ahead and COR Behind images) plus tie-point reconstruction technique; 2) Center of mass (along epipolar lines) plus tie-point reconstruction technique; 3) Polarization ratio technique (see for e.g. Moran and Davila 2004); 4) Forward modelling technique (see Thernisien et al. 2006). The four techniques are applied on three structured CMEs observed by COR1 and COR2 instruments on 15 May 2007, 31 August 2007 and 25 March 2008. A discussion of the results is presented.

 
 
8   00:00   Magnetosphere Ion Dynamics under different Solar Activity Conditions
DANDOURAS, Iannis1; REME, Henri2; CAO, Jinbin3; PLAINAKI, Christina4
1CESR Toulouse, FRANCE;
2CESR/University of Toulouse, FRANCE;
3CSSAR Beijing, CHINA;
4IFSI INAF Frascati, ITALY

The four identical Cluster spacecraft, launched in 2000, orbit the Earth in a tetrahedral configuration and on a highly eccentric polar orbit (4 - 19.6 RE). This allows the crossing of critical layers that develop as a result of the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere. During the northern hemisphere winter their apogee is in the solar wind, allowing to study the magnetopause and bow shock structure and response to solar wind conditions, whereas during the remaining part of the year they analyse the magnetotail dynamics during storms and substorms. The 4 RE perigee permits them to sample the ring current, the outer radiation belt and the outer plasmasphere from south to north, almost following the same magnetic field line (latitudinal profile). Since 2004 the Chinese Double Star TC 1 (until 10 October 2007) and TC2 spacecraft, whose payload comprise backup models of instruments developed by European scientists for Cluster, provide two additional points of measurement, on a larger scale: the Cluster and Double Star orbits are such that the spacecraft are almost in the same meridian, allowing conjugate studies. The Cluster and Double Star observations from quiet conditions to the 2005 and 2006 extreme solar events will be presented, showing uncommon plasma parameters values in the near-Earth solar wind and in the magnetosheath, unusual dayside magnetosphere compression, detection of high-energy particle populations, and ring current development.

 
 
9   00:00   On the Origin of Coronal Shock Waves Associated with Limb Events
Magdalenic, Jasmina1; Marque, C.1; Zhukov, A.N1; Vrsnak, B.2
1SIDC - Royal Observatory of Belgium, BELGIUM;
2Hvar Observatory, Zagreb University,, CROATIA

The origin of coronal shock waves is a subject of a long-standing debate. Coronal shocks can be either flare generated freely propagating blast waves, or CME driven shocks. Since CMEs and flares are usually closely synchronized it is hard to give a conclusive answer.

We present multi-wavelength studies of large scale coronal disturbances associated with several CME/flare events. To avoid the influence of projection effects we consider only events associated with flares located at the limb or close to the limb.

The kinematics and evolution of shock wave signatures - metric type II radio bursts and EIT waves, are analyzed and compared with the CME evolution and kinematics during the onset and early stage of the CME. The plane-of-the-sky position of the type II burst source is examined, relative to the leading edge of the CME. Additionally, in two events the type II band-split is used to determine the magnetic field and the Alfven velocity.

The shock velocity and the shock height estimations, derived from the type II radio bursts, strongly depend on the chosen coronal density model. In the case of limb events the influence of projection effects is rather small. This gives us an opportunity to derive an appropriate density model while using positions of the type II radio sources.

The type II burst in the CME/flare event on 21 January 2005 appears in four NRH observing frequencies. This gave us a unique possibility to examine density changes along the propagation of the shock wave. We found that density changes rather smoothly following the density distribution of 38xSaito.

The obtained shock velocities are significantly higher that the CME velocities. We have identified several events in which the shock was probably not driven by the CME, but initiated by the flare.

 
 
10   00:00   Geomagnetic Signatures of the Solar and Interplanetary Structures
Trichtchenko, Larisa
NRCan, CANADA

This paper presents an analysis of the geomagnetic effects of the different solar and interplanetary situations observed during solar cycle 23. The solar events and interplanetary signatures are examined based on SOHO and ACE data. Their effects on Earth magnetosphere are examined using ground geomagnetic data (not indices) from different INTERMAGNET observatories A detailed look into 5 periods of significant solar activity (April-May 1998, July 2000, March-April 2001, October 2003 and November 2004) with additions of less significant events (May 2005) allowes us to identify and to systematise their particular signatures in interplanetary solar wind and geomagnetic field at different latitudes.

The results of the analysis will be used in improving of the forecast of the local geomagnetic activity based on solar and interplanetary data.

 
 
11   00:00   Multiresolution Analysis of Synoptic Solar Magnetic Fields
Wik, Magnus; Lundstedt, Henrik; Wintoft, Peter
Swedish Institute of Space Physics, SWEDEN

Synoptic maps of the solar magnetic field provide an important visualization of the global transport and evolution of the large-scale magnetic flux. The solar dynamo picture is dependent on both the spatial and time resolution. With multi-resolution wavelet analysis we can study the synoptic solar magnetic fields for several resolutions at the same time. In this study we have carried out a wavelet based multiresolution analysis (MRA) of photospheric synoptic magnetograms. Magnetograms of Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Stanford, were used. WSO data cover cycles 21,22 and 23. The result reveals a complex picture of the solar magnetic activity on different scales. We observe strong transports of fluxes to the polar regions. Around 11 years we observe a very regular pattern which resembles a wave from the sunspot to the polar regions. We also see that a large range of latitudes vary in phase. A large asymmetry between solar northern and southern hemispheres is also seen

 
 
12   00:00   Long-term Variations in Solar Dynamo and Terrestrial Climate
Georgieva, Katya1; Kirov, Boian2
1Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, BULGARIA;
2STIL-BAS, BULGARIA

The global warming registered in the last century is believed to be at least partly caused by human activity. In order to evaluate the anthropogenic impact on climate, first the role of natural factors, and mainly of solar activity must be evaluated. Solar activity is maintained by the solar dynamo - the cyclic transformation of the large-scale solar poloidal field into toroidal field, and of this toroidal field into a new poloidal field with the opposite polarity. Therefore, solar agents affecting the Earth can be related to either the Sun's poloidal field (high speed solar wind from coronal holes), or to the Sun's toroidal field (solar flares, coronal mass ejections). The most obvious manifestation of solar influences on the Earth is geomagnetic activity, and corresponding to the two types of solar agents, there are two peaks in geomagnetic activity in the course of the 11-year solar cycle: one at sunspot maximum when the coronal mass ejections are most numerous and most intense, and another one on the declining to minimum phase of the sunspot cycle when polar coronal holes reach their maximum size. Both solar activity as measured by the sunspot number and geomagnetic activity expressed by the geomagnetic aa-index have increased in the last century, however the correlation between them has been steadily decreasing. This change in the correlation is related to the changing of the relative importance of the two peaks in geomagnetic activity, respectively to the difference in the long-term evolution of the solar poloidal and toroidal fields.

There are at least two possible mechanisms, probably operating concurrently, linking the variations in these two manifestations of solar activity to the terrestrial climate. The first accounts for variations in solar electromagnetic radiation and especially in its shorter wavelength fraction which is entirely absorbed in the stratosphere, the second relies on variations in the galactic cosmic rays flux. The importance of the first mechanism should depend on geographic latitude (stronger influence for lower geographic latitude), and of the second one - on geomagnetic latitude (stronger influence for higher geomagnetic latitude).

Here we compare the long-term variations in the solar poloidal and toroidal field to the intensity and position of atmospheric centers of action, and to the long-term variations in frequency and persistence of the types of atmospheric circulation determining the long-term variations in temperature and in the frequency of extreme weather events, respectively.

 
 
13   00:00   SEP events in Space Weather Issues
Gardini, Angela; Laurenza, Monica; Storini, Marisa
ifsi-roma/inaf, ITALY

Proton fluxes recorded in the energy range of about 4 MeV - 40 MeV by Helios-1, Helios-2, and IMP-8 spacecraft (SC) during 1974-1982 are used to analyze several solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In particular, the problem of the flux radial dependence is faced, by selecting events for which at least two SC have nominal magnetic footpoints within 20 deg in heliographic longitude. For each event, the data were previously calibrated by comparing measurements from channels with equivalent energy aboard the different space vehicles. Main results are here described.

 
 
14   00:00   NARMAX based Forecasting of Space Weather
Balikhin, Michael; Hualiang, Wei; Billings, Stephen; Walker, Simon
University of Sheffield, UNITED KINGDOM

An approach based on the Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Exogeneous Inputs (NARMAX) methodology is used to generate mathematical models of various Space Weather related parameters such as geomagnetic indices and the plasma environment at geosynchronous orbit. These models are then validated from both a statistical and dynamical perspective. It is shown that the resulting models are able to produce a reliable forecast for the evolution of the Space Weather parameters.

 
 
15   00:00   Vertical Characteristics of Midlatitude E and F Region Ionospheric Drifts
Boska, Josef1; Kouba, Daniel2; Sauli, Petra2
1Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, CZECH REPUBLIC;
2Institite of Atmospheric Physics, CZECH REPUBLIC

Routine Digisonde drifts measurements with DPS 4 equipment started at Prùhonice observatory in January 2004. In standard autodrift measurements, the F region drift velocity is usually determined near the peak of electron concentration profile. Since May 2005, the Pruhonice Digisonde also measures routinely E-region drifts in the height interval 90 - 150 km, using four fixed frequencies between 2.0 and 2.6 MHz. This new experimental arrangement makes possible to study vertical changes and profiles of the ionospheric drifts. In our paper we deals with winter time significant changes of the drift velocity height profiles in the E region of the ionosphere (90 - 150 km) during geomagnetic quiet conditions. More dramatic vertical changes of all drift velocities components in the height interval 90 - 130 km (with effects of acoustic gravity waves) was observed during geomagnetic storms 14 - 16.12.2006.

In second part of this paper we report an observed night time changes of the vertical drift velocity profiles in the F region of the ionosphere during quiet and disturbed conditions at midlatitude station Pruhonice.

 
 
16   00:00   Finding the Best Proxies for the Solar UV Flux
Dudok de Wit, Thierry1; Kretzschmar, Matthieu1; Lilensten, Jean2
1University of Orléans, FRANCE;
2Laboratoire de Planétologie de Grenoble, FRANCE

Solar UV emissions have a profound impact on the upper terrestrial atmosphere but their continuous and long-term monitoring is a major instrumental challenge. For that reason, solar proxies are used to reproduce the solar spectral variability. Finding the best proxies for specific spectral bands, however, remains an ongoing problem. Using several years of observations and a multiscale statistical approach, we test the performance of 8 proxies for the UV. In addition to this, we also include the expected response of the radiometers from LYRA/PROBA2 and PREMOS/PICARD.

The relevance of these different proxies is evaluated on different time-scales using a novel graphical representation that allows all quantities to be compared simultaneously. This representation reveals which spectral bands are most difficult to reconstruct and what new proxies are needed. The best candidates for different spectral bands are given.

 
 
17   00:00   Automated Detection of Type II Solar Radio Bursts in Radiospectrograms
Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Tamaazousti, Mohamed
University of Orléans, FRANCE

Interplanetary type II solar radio bursts are good (but not fully reliable) precursors for geomagnetic storms as they are the signature of approaching CMEs. Such bursts are usually detected by eye from radiospectrograms. The simultaneous occurrence of other radio emissions, however, often considerably hinders their detection and stresses the need for an automated and robust detection scheme. We present such a scheme, which builds upon the Hough transform, and apply it to radiospectrograms from WIND. The possibility of detecting type II bursts automatically is discussed.

 
 
18   00:00   Critical Analysis of the Current Approach to Solar Flare Energy Release
Pustilnik, Lev
Tel Aviv University, ISRAEL

We review current approach to solar flare origin with critical analysis of different aspects of this problem:

1. Pre-flare equilibrium state: role of observed numerous ultra fine structure of the force-free magnetic fields of active region with elements of fractal dimensions and dynamical equilibrium of stochastic ensemble of magnetic ropes
2. Loss of pre-flare equilibrium: absence of adequate mechanisms for description of this catastrophic transition from previous force free equilibrium to singular state with concentration of dispersed currents into very thin current sheet & string, where anomalous magnetic dissipation and reconnection.
3. Flare energy release itself: problem of "survival" of flare's current sheet caused by its strong (threshold-like) sensitivity to current density, by effects of current's region overheating and by "splitting" of current sheet.

We present some possible solution of demonstrated problem on the base of "percolation approach" to current propagation in unstable turbulent current sheet. We show that current percolation in stochastic resistor's network with feed-back of resistors to current level and show that this approach is able to explain naturally main observed properties of the solar flares ("threshold-like" start of flare energy release, power-like frequency-amplitude spectra of flare bursts and power-like energetic spectra of accelerated particles) as manifestation of self-organization in percolated system.

 
 
19   00:00   Space Weather Influence on the Earth Wheat Markets: Past, Present, and Future
Pustilnik, Lev
Tel Aviv University & Israel Space Weather, ISRAEL

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction", study of dynamics of its manifestation during historical time and discuss expected manifestations in the nearest future. We show that observed relations "space weather"-"earth weather" discovered in the last decade allow revising wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather and solar activity. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England (past time) and to modern USA durum market (present time) showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level.

In the present work we attempt to answer on the question: why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects is controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and intensified North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this cold and humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in future in specific regions, caused by drastic and fast change of modern climate with fast and unexpected shift of numerous "stable" agriculture regions in the world to the state of "high risk agriculture zone".

 
 
20   00:00   On the Probability of Solar CR Fluencies in Dependence of the Level of Solar Activity according to NM and Satellite Data
Dorman, Lev; Pustil'nik, Lev
Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, ISRAEL

We study the probability of fluency level of solar cosmic rays in different phases of solar activity. Information on fluency distribution is necessary for estimation of radiation hazard both in the space (satellites, interplanetary missions, space stations) and in atmosphere (aircraft and ground levels). We estimate probabilities of fluencies on the base of long time observation of proton flux (both direct measurements on the space detectors and on the base of recalculation from ground neutron monitors and muon detectors). Restored amplitude spectrum (distribution of events with given interval of amplitudes of the fluency or for fluencies more than given) allows us to estimate probability of dangerous states and extrapolate this distribution for rare events of extremely high amplitudes. Main sources of data for this analysis are data from about four solar cycles observations fluencies on the ground and in space by different detectors and recalculated by method of coupling functions.

 
 
21   00:00   Enhanced Flux of SEP as a Measure of CME Geoffectiveness in Relation to the SEP Event Onset Time
Revallo, Milos1; Valach, Fridrich2; Bochnicek, Josef3; Hejda, Pavel3
1Geophysical Institute SAS, SLOVAKIA;
2Geomagnetic Observatory, Geophysical Institute SAS, SLOVAKIA;
3Geophysical Institute, AS CR, CZECH REPUBLIC

It is known that nearly all strong magnetic storms are caused by CMEs, but not all of the CMEs are geoeffective. Along with the CMEs themselves there are other solar events that need to be considered to assess the CME geoeffectivity.

Recent studies show that the solar energetic particle (SEP) flux associated with full halo CMEs could serve as a predictor of enhanced geomagnetic activity. The relations between CME speed, SEP flux and strong magnetic storms have been modelled previously. Here we attempt to feed the model with additional information concerning the SEP event onset time. Unlike the impulsive SEP events we focus on the gradual SEP events generated by the CME driven shocks to discriminate between highly geoeffective CMEs from those less geoeffective.

 
 
22   00:00   Can Flares Contribute to the Total Solar Irradiance Variations?
Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Dudok de Wit, Thierry
LPCE / CNRS / Université d'Orléans, FRANCE

We first report on the discovery of (quasi) systematic flare signatures in the total solar irradiance (TSI) time series. We have analyzed 11 years of high temporal resolution TSI measurements made by the PMO and DIARAD sensors of the VIRGO instrument onboard SoHO, and we show that a solar flare results in a small but very probably systematic increase of the TSI. We estimate the spectral distribution of the radiated energy and we find evidence for an important contribution of the visible domain. Then we discuss the new possibility that flares contribute significantly to the TSI variation over the solar cycle.

 
 
23   00:00   Jonospheric Reflection of Magnetic Activity described by the New Index
Dziak-Jankowska, Beata1; Ernst, Tomasz2; Tomasik, Lukasz1
1Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences, POLAND;
2Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, POLAND

The ionosphere system is the result of acting an external and internal driving forces following in Solar-Terrestrial interaction. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the ionosphere are controlled by the physical processes driving by external and internal forces upon which the maintain of the system depend like composition, neutral wind, and electric fields. Ionospheric behaviour is well correlated with magnetic activity. Magnetic drivers are bringing essential energetic input to a ionosphere, so, synthetic information gathered in magnetic indices is often used. They presented the quantification of the ionospheric changes. A number of geomagnetic indices have been developed to facilitate the study of ionospheric activity. It is usually assumed that the external magnetic field inducing currents can be approximated by a plane wave vertically incident on the Earth’s surface. Indices characterize irregular magnetic changes. One of the reason of the magnetic indices development is description of isolated phenomena. These are local, as well as global indices. The new magnetic index eta was proposed by the T. Ernst and J. Jankowski (2005). Their conclude that the differences discovered in the external part of the vertical geomagnetic component point to the existence of local inhomogeneities in the magnetosphere or the ionosphere. Here, the correlations between the most sensitive to magnetic influence - ionospheric E layer data; foE and h'E characteristics and the magnetic index eta are presented. The maps of the foE, h'E and magnetic index eta are created by means of the interpolation method cold adaptive normalised convolution (ANC). This method, as shown by the M. P. Foster and A. N. Evans (2008), was the best interpolation method for the reconstruction of very sparse and irregular geophysical data. European magnetic and ionospheric observatories are located at different positions. Usually measured magnetic indexes used in ionospheric modeling represent the magnetic activity at the position of the magnetic observatories which could not represent the magnetic properties at the positions of the ionospheric observatories. The magnetic indexes obtained by the ANC method at the positions of ionospheric observatories are presented.

 
 
24   00:00   Modelling Ionosphere using Genetic Programming over the Europe Region
Tomasik, Lukasz
SRC PAS, POLAND

The state of the ionosphere depends on the intensity of solar activity, magnetic activity, local time, season, and other space weather factors, unfortunately the dependence is not thoroughly known. Genetic programming is a method that permit to automatically making algorithms knowing only general definition of a problem. The paper presents the using self-adaptive genetic algorithm in space weather applications and the use of this method for forecasting and mapping of the ionosphere characteristics, as foF2, M(3000)F2. The proposed algorithm is demonstrating for European area.

 
 
25   00:00   The Effect of Solar/Geomagnetic Activity on the Northern Hemisphere Circulation in Winter 1981/82
Bochnicek, Josef1; Hejda, Pavel1; Davidkovova, Hana1; Huth, Radan2
1Institute of Geophysics ASCR, CZECH REPUBLIC;
2Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, CZECH REPUBLIC

The association between changes in solar/geomagnetic activity and changes in the lower atmosphere circulation was analysed for the Northern Hemisphere winter 1981/82. The winter is characterised by a cold early and mid-winter, interrupted by two minor warmings at the beginning of December and January. During the whole period, east phase of quasibiennial oscillation and high, variable solar activity persisted. Whilst the geomagnetic activity was low in the early winter, strong increase appeared at the very beginning of February. The analysis showed that high geomagnetic activity (∑Kp≥30) lasting several days strongly coincided with the deepening of the relative low over the North Atlantic and with the intensification of the stratospheric polar vortex. Strenghtening of the signal was observed at the time of simultaneous increase of solar and geomagnetic activity. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in January was replaced by the predominating strong positive phase in February and March.

 
 
26   00:00   Effects of Meteorological and Geomagnetic Parameters on Morbidity (Myocardial Infarction and Brain Strock)
Gurfinkel , Yury1; Ozheredov, Vadim2; Breus, Tamara2; Revich, Boris3; Mitrofanova, Tamara4
1Central Clinical Hospital, RUSSIAN FEDERATION;
2Space research institute (IKI) RAS, RUSSIAN FEDERATION;
3Institute of Forecasting of RAS, RUSSIAN FEDERATION;
44Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation,RAS, RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Analysis of the climatic conditions' impact to the mortality has been provided up to now in many cities in Europe, USA and Japan, but daily difference of temperature, atmospheric pressure and level of geomagnetic activity have not been taken into account. In present work we are investigating problem of influence of temperature, atmospheric pressure and geomagnetic activity on the morbidity of patients with acute myocardial infarction and brain stocks using data of two large city hospitals. An important feature of this study was that we used only cases with established date of acute attack of diseases (total 2833 cases for 9 years).

Undated cases were excluded from the analysis. Daily air temperature and atmospheric pressure data were supplied by the weather station of Moscow State University, while geomagnetic activity data were reported by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow Region, Russia.

We employ cross-validation method for revealing dependencies of medical data on natural parameters (external space weather factors). It allows forecasting and estimating influences each of aforementioned parameters on the human health statute.

 
 
27   00:00   Defining Magneto-Sensitive People by Forecasting Based on Space Weather Conditions as a Validation
Ozheredov, Vadim1; Dimitrova , Svetla2
1Space Research Institute (IKI)RAS, RUSSIAN FEDERATION;
2Solar-Terrestrial Influence Laboratory BAN, BULGARIA

We were aiming to separate magnetosensitive people from insensitive ones by linear algorithm in 2-dimensional space of determination coefficients between real systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and SBP/DBP estimated by prediction based on dependence of BP on local K-index. Method of prediction is based on cross - validation algorithm and it allows us to check it on and examined it on predictions for example of dynamical chaos, solar wind speed and financial series. Since both correlations between real and predicted SBP and real and predicted DBP expected to be prominently high in case of magnetosensitive person and low in case of insensitive one, we proposed that in such parametric space sensitive and insensitive persons are linearly separable. For our research we took 76 practically healthy people from Sofia, Bulgaria.. It is clearly seen that from 76 examined persons only 62 (approx. 80%) turned to be magnetosensitive. Since our method can perform forecasting of significant peaks only, we employed nonlinear determination coefficient (it is obvious that part of deviations from normal BP are connected with physiological adaptation processes, but not with magnetic disturbances).

Conclusions:
1) Cross-validation permits to optimize parameters of dependence recovery algorithm and reveals noise level.
2) Applying these methods actually permits to recover genuine dependencies as it clearly seen in live-reality examples.
3) Detailed exploration data on healthy persons in Sophia permits to claim that only 62 from 76 persons (approx. 80%) are not magnetosensitive.

 
 
28   00:00   Starting Moment of Biological System Reply to the Space Weather Hazards
Breus, Tamara; Zenchenko, Tatiana
Space Research Institute/Institute of theoretical and experimental biophysics, RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Arterial Blood pressure (ABP) analysis and its dynamic were done using data of different groups of populations (patients with hypertensions and healthy volunteers) from various countries. In total we had 250 measurements. (116 patients with hypertension were from Moscow and China; 134 healthy volunteers were from Bulgaria and Moscow) ABP monitoring was done ones per day for some groups, every hour for another group or three times per day for control group during time from 3 months to two years. We use the methods of correlation and dispersion analyses and we make individual approach to the special cases when we discovered advancing reaction on a geomagnetic storm. Our analyses showed that as far as for healthy volunteers so for patients with hypertension from 25 to 60% of people were sensitive and reacted to the space weather effects. For healthy volunteers in general there was no shift from the starting moments of geomagnetic disturbances. For patients suffering from hypertension there was delay about 1-2 days from the magnetic storm onset. However for healthy volunteers which were investigated during 2 years (2001, 2002) in Bulgaria "advancing reaction" on the visible magnetic storm onset had been detected. 10% of volunteers reacted by ABP variations with significance one day before the rise of magnetic field connected with onset of magnetic storms. Detailed analysis showed that all "advancing reactions" were observed during maximum of the solar activity and magnetic storms with sudden commencements (SC).

Detailed analysis inside of day when development such a storm take place showed that physiological reaction started after moment of the solar wind shock wave interaction with Earth magnetic field. In the same time during low solar activity most of storms are the storms with gradual beginning and we did not discover cases with "advancing reaction" either for patients neither for volunteers.

As far as for many years and in number of some papers "advancing reaction" had been discussed (including Professor France Halberg group from USA) without understanding the reason of such biological events we announcing now that there is no reason to talk about advancement, if onset of geomagnetic disturbances will be accounted for not from the sharp decrease of Dst variations, but from the moment of the SW bow shock interaction with the earth magnetosphere and sharp increase of a the solar wind proton density.

Results of hourly monitoring of ABP in such events showed that in duration of 1-1.5 hours after interplanetary shock appearance near the Earth various volunteers reacted by slight decrease of ABP (about 15 mmHg i.e beyond normal dispersion values) during short time and than their BP returns to normal values or slightly increases.

Thus we can conclude that reaction of biological system to the geomagnetic activity develops simultaneously with interaction of solar wind bow shock with the Earth magnetosphere and in some cases it advances the directly registered increase of geomagnetic activity.

 
 
29   00:00   EIT Waves as Precursors of Gradual S.E.P. Events
Alessandro, Ippolito1; Gaetano, Zimbardo2; Pierluigi, Veltri2
1Università della Calabria, ITALY;
2Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, ITALY

Gradual Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are often associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Recent studies have found a good correlation between CMEs and EIT waves, coronal waves observed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO spacecraft.

Here we study 6 SEP events, finding for each event a probably associated EIT wave; and 6 flare events in which no CMEs or particular energetic particle fluxes have been observed, in agreement with the fact that no coronal waves have been detected for those days. We used SEP data detected by IMP8, from the NASA Omniweb gatalogue, CMEs data from the CACTUS gatalogue, flares observed by GOES, from NGDC gatalogue, and the NEMO EIT waves gatalogue. Making a table of the analyzed events, we suggest that a strong correlation can be found between the detection of EIT waves and, a few hours later, SEP fluxes. We also suggest that, because of the existence of a good correlation between the two phenomena, the detection of EIT waves can be read as a warning of intense solar particle fluxes.