Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis

Evolution of errors

Conditional errors

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3


Evaluation of forecast models

Mean absolute error and skill score

Mean absolute value of error and skill score

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement nr. 263506 [AFFECTS].
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Further verification analysis is in the pipeline.