Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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Glossary
F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis

Conditional quantile range of the errors on the F10.7 for each of the forecast models for day 3.
Forecast errors are included for the SIDC forecast, persistence model, corrected recurrence models for 14 and 27 days and linear fit (day 3). The full period from 2002 on is covered.
Top panel: median error, conditional on the observations. This implies that for each of the observed F10.7 values on the x-axis, half of forecasted data has an error of maximally the value at the colored line.
Middle panel: interquartile range of the error, conditional on the observations. For a specific observation, an interquartile range of the error of 20 implies that a bound of 20 around the median error covers the middle 50% of the errors.
Bottom panel: distribution of the forecasted F10.7