Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

Forecast of M/X flares

Evaluation of the SIDC forecast and models to predict a flare of x-ray classes M or X, across the years from 2004 on.
Measures are the probability of detection (POD, top row) and proportion correctness (PC, middle row) for all forecasts, and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS, top row) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS, middle row) for the SIDC forecast.
The lower row visualizes the proportion of days with an event, a hit, a miss and a false alarm. the proportion of hits and the proportion of misses sum up to the number of events.