Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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Glossary
F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

Geomagnetic K-index on full scale (0-9)

Matrixplot with the distributions and color grid for the different forecast models.
Top row: color grid for the different forecasts (SIDC, persistence, corrected recurrence at 14 and 27 days). The predicted K-index is on the horizontal axis (x-axis), while the observed one is on the vertical (y-axis). The more reddish the colored square, the more frequent the combination of forecasted and observed K-index occurs. The sum of the probabilities across the whole grid is 1. Data from June 2004 on are included.
Second row: similar as top row. The sum of the probabilities along the x-axis is 1.
Third row: similar as top row. The sum of the probabilities along the y-axis is 1.
Bottom row: histograms of the different forecast models; SIDC forecast, persistence and corrected recurrence at 14 and 27 days.