Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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Glossary
F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

Flares (all classes)

Matrixplot with the distributions and color grid for the different forecast models.
Top row: color grid for the different forecasts (SIDC, persistence, corrected recurrence at 14 and 27 days). The predicted flare class is on the horizontal axis (x-axis), while the observed one is on the vertical axis (y-axis). The more reddish the colored square, the more frequent the combination of forecasted and observed flare class occurs. The sum of the probabilities across the whole grid is 1. Data from June 2004 on are included.
Second row: similar as top row. The sum of the probabilities along the x-axis is 1.
Third row: similar as top row. The sum of the probabilities along the y-axis is 1.
Bottom row: histograms of the different forecast models; SIDC forecast, persistence and corrected recurrence at 14 and 27 days.