Verification Analysis of the SIDC Forecast

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Glossary
F10.7 Solar Flux Forecast
F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis
K-index on Full Scale (0-9)
K-index: Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm
Forecast of Flares
Forecast of M/X Flares

F10.7 Solar Flux Error Analysis

Mean absolute value of the error and the skill score of all forecast models. Plot for days 1, 2 and 3 together.
The color bars indicate the mean absolute value of the absolute error of the SIDC forecast and forecast models for days 1, 2 and 3. Averages are calculated across the full period from 2002 on. The crosses indicate the skill score with the persistency model as reference. By definition the skill score is 0 for the persistency model.