:Issued: 2012 Oct 04 1246 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 21004 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2012, 1236UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Oct 2012 until 06 Oct 2012) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2012 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 003 COMMENT: Four sunspot groups are currently reported on the Sun. An isolated C-class flare is probable in NOAA ARs 1582 and 1585. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 280 km/s) solar wind flow with weak (1-2 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 040, BASED ON 13 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Oct 2012 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 113 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 005 ESTIMATED ISN : 042, BASED ON 20 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu # # Please do not reply directly to this message, but send comments # # and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use # # that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#