:Issued: 2012 Nov 16 1304 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 21116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Nov 2012, 0952UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Nov 2012 until 18 Nov 2012)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2012  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2012  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2012  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours,
featuring three C flares from NOAA AR 11613. The C1.4 long duration
flare peaking at 07:51 UT on November 16 was associated with a filament
eruption near AR 11613. Concurrently, a filament on the eastern limb
erupted. The available coronagraph data from COR2 A aboard STEREO
suggest that the corresponding CMEs will not be geo-effective. More
C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a chance for
an M flare, especially from AR 11613. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) during the
past 24 hours. Quiet (K Dourbes < 4) conditions are expected for
November 16, 17 and 18.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 095, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Nov 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 141
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 004
ESTIMATED ISN          : 102, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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