SIDC ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC ursigram
SIDC code tot

Latest issue

:Issued: 2019 Mar 25 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 90325
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Mar 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Mar 2019 until 27 Mar 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Mar 2019  10CM FLUX: 073 / AP: 010
COMMENT: During last 24 hours several B-class flares were observed, and the
strongest reported flare was B9.6 (peaked at 19:31 UT on March 24),
originating from the NOAA AR 2736 (no Catania numbering). This active
region, which was also source of many B-class and some C-class flares
during past few days, has rotated over the west solar limb. Another active
region which was observed on the visible side of the solar disc during last
days, NOAA AR 2735 (no Catania numbering), is presently situated at the
west solar limb. We can expect occasional B-class flares in the next 24
hours, while C-class flares are still possible but not probable.
There were no Earth directed CMEs reported during last 24 hours and the
solar protons remained at the background level.

The in situ observations (DSCOVR) indicate arrival of the CME-driven shock
wave, at about 20:43 UT on March 24. The shock observed in the solar wind
was associated with the March 20 CME. The arrival of the shock wave did not
induced disturbed geomagnetic conditions (local station at Dourbes and NOAA
reported only K=2 and Kp=2, respectively). The solar wind speed is about
330 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is 5 nT.  The
geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and we expect them to stay so in
the coming hours. The arrival of the fast solar wind, associated with the
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that is expected tomorrow, might
induce unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Mar 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 075
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 006
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 016, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

UMAGF 30503 90325 1004/ 24062 1/006 21000 30221
UMAGF 31523 90325 0000/ 24006 1/002 20010 30003
BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.