:Issued: 2022 Aug 14 1234 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 20814 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Aug 2022, 1233UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Aug 2022 until 16 Aug 2022) SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2022 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007 COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at low levels. Several C-flares occurred in the past 24 hours, the majority of which originated from NOAA active regions 3079 and 3081. The strongest flare was a C6.7 flare from NOAA AR 3079 peaking at 13:00 UTC. NOAA ARs 3080 and 3074 have decayed into plage regions. NOAA AR 3081 has developed rapidly in the north-west of the solar disk, the remaining active regions are relatively simple and stable. Solar flaring activity is expected to be a low levels, with C-class flaring very likely and a chance for M-class flaring. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above or around the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels with a slow decreasing trend. The Earth continues to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed decreased from around 540 to 470 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours solar wind speed is expected to continue the decreasing trend and slowly return towards slow solar wind conditions/ Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 123, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Aug 2022 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 124 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 011 ESTIMATED ISN : 124, BASED ON 24 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#