:Issued: 2026 Oct 15 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 61015 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Oct 2026, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2026 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 005 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 8726), peaking at 02:07 UTC on October 15, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 980 (NOAA Active Region 4551, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 980 is the most complex group. SIDC Sunspot Group 946 (NOAA Active Region 4548) is rotating across the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 965, 982 and 983 (NOAA Active Regions 4554, 4558 and 4556, respectively) decayed into plage regions. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A slow Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting from around 13:36 UTC on October 14, directed mainly north-eastward. The CME was associated with a filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant. It is not expected to impact Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected enhanced solar wind conditions under the continued influence of the high- speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142. Speed values initially decreased from around 570 km/s to around 500 km/s, before increasing to around 610 km/s at approximately 18:00 UTC on October 14, possibly related to a glancing blow arrival from SIDC CME 730. Subsequently, the speed gradually decreased to around 470 km/s towards the end of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field values ranged between about 2 nT and 7 nT. The Bz component varied between about -6 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours, with a gradual decreasing trend under the waning influence of the high-speed stream. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for isolated active intervals under the waning influence of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 142. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 073, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Oct 2026 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 123 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 015 AK WINGST : 012 ESTIMATED AP : 011 ESTIMATED ISN : 102, BASED ON 24 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#