:Issued: 2025 Aug 29 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50829 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Aug 2025, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 232 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 234 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2025 10CM FLUX: 234 / AP: 007 Solar Active Regions and flaring: A total of 16 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5260) peaking on August 28 at 20:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active Region 4203). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours. Coronal holes: A narrow equatorial negative polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on 28 August, its associated high speed stream may be expected at the Earth on 1 September. Solar wind: The Earth is inside slow solar wind with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic fields of about 7 nT (directed towards the Sun, negative polarity). Similar conditions can be expected for the coming 24 hours. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (Kp between 0 and 3 and K_Bel 0 and 2). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been below the 10 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain at nominal levels. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and 19 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The 24 h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 211, BASED ON 17 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Aug 2025 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 204 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 232 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013 AK WINGST : 007 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 201, BASED ON 15 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 28 1411 1416 1422 ////// M1.1 94/4197 28 1700 1711 1717 ////// M1.2 96/4203 28 1848 1903 1909 S18E20 M1.0 SN 94/4197 28 2030 2040 2046 ////// M1.5 96/4203 28 2030 2040 2046 ////// M1.5 96/4203 29 0409 0416 0418 ////// M1.0 ///4203 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#