SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2019 Sep 21 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 90921
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Sep 2019, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Sep 2019 until 23 Sep 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 013
COMMENT: Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period.
The Solar disk is spotless and X-ray flux is expected to remain at or below
background levels.

The filament eruption from the Southern hemisphere that was mentioned in
yesterdays bulletin has been investigated further.
While the STEREO/COR2 coronagraph data indicate a corresponding narrow CME
that may be Earth directed its corresponding projected speed is below 300
km/s. SoHO/LASCO data do not show any clear signs of any (partial) halo CME
but only some weak signatures of Eastward propagating material. It is hence
assessed that the ejecta are possibly off the Sun-Earth line towards the
East. Even if the ejecta would be towards the Earth, with such a slow speed
it is unlikely to have any significant impact. Hence no specific arrival
forecast is made.
There were otherwise no Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

Proton levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions were near nominal. Around 5:00UT Solar wind speed
increased fairly suddenly from around 300 km/s to around 360 km/s along
with total magnetic field going up from around 3nT to around 7nT. At that
time the magnetic field phi angle started fluctuating between the positive
and negative sector and Bz became pronounced negative.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near nominal over the next 48
hours then followed towards the end of day 3 with the onset of a high speed
stream related to the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole that passed
the central meridian yesterday.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3 and local K
Dourbes 0-3).
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue the next
48 hours with later, towards the end of day 3, unsettled to active
conditions expected under the high speed stream influence.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Sep 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 067
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 003
ESTIMATED AP           : 002
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.