SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2020 Nov 28 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 01128
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Nov 2020, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Nov 2020 until 30 Nov 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2020  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2020  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2020  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active
Region (AR) 2786 (Beta-Gamma) produced multiple B and low-level C-class
flares. NOAA AR 2785 (Beta) developed trailer spots and showed signs of
flux emergence. NOAA AR 2783 exhibited some decay and is now an Alpha
region. The newly numbered NOAA AR 2787 (N30E60, Catania sunspot group 58)
which has recently rotated onto the solar disk has magnetic type Alpha and
was quiet. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a
high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated
M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraphic
imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold between 13:00 and
20:40 UT Nov 27. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is expected to
exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate
levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24
hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 390 and 490
km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength had a maximum value of 6
nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was
predominantly directed away from the Sun (phi angle in the positive
sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to
return to nominal conditions as the influence of the extension to the
northern polar Coronal Hole (CH) dwindles.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24
hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-3,
respectively).  Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue at quiet to
unsettled levels for the next 24 hours and then return to quiet levels as
the influence of the CH passes.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 076, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Nov 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 083
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 106
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 007
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 063, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.