SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2017 Aug 19 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 70819
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Aug 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Aug 2017 until 21 Aug 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 082 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2017  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 2671 has again increased in size and produced C-class
flares, there were four in past 24 h. The strongest one did not originate
in NOAA AR 2671 though, it was a C4.4 peaking at 20:02 UT on August 18 and
came from a region rotating into view from the east limb. A CME erupted in
the vicinity of this region (seen at 14:24 UT on August 18 by LASCO-C2),
directed to the east and will not be geoeffective. C-class (and possibly
M-class) flares can be expected

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar
protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours.

The Earth is still inside a high speed solar wind stream, the speed is
around 680 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field intensity of 7 nT. As a
consequence, Kp reached 5 and the local K went up to 4. More disturbed
conditions can be expected in the next 24 h.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 051, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Aug 2017
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 080
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 037
AK WINGST              : 027
ESTIMATED AP           : 027
ESTIMATED ISN          : 041, BASED ON 28 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.