SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2021 Apr 16 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 10416
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Apr 2021, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Apr 2021 until 18 Apr 2021)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Apr 2021  10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the last 24 hours.
Sunspot group Catania 86 (NOAA 2814) further increased its number of sun
spots, remaining magnetic type Beta. Two other unnumbered sunspot groups
are visible on the solar disc. One of them was reported to emerged on April
15th close to the centre and visible this morning around S22W15, while the
one rotated from the east limb, being close to S22E70. All three active
regions currently show low levels of activity. The flaring activity within
the next 24 hours is expected to remain low with some chance for C-class
flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than
2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected
to be predominantly at nominal in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR)
registered slight enhancements due to the expected arrival of a high speed
stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole (CH). The total magnetic
field reached a magnitude of 10.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -7.4 nT. The
solar wind speed is gradually increasing, peaking at 488 km/s, and is
expected to increase further.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected in the next 24 hours
with a possibility for a minor geomagnetic storm.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 037, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Apr 2021
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 072
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 019
AK WINGST              : 014
ESTIMATED AP           : 015
ESTIMATED ISN          : 024, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.