SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Aug 13 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20813
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Aug 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Aug 2022 until 15 Aug 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Several C flares occurred in the past 24 hours. Most of them from
the newly emerged NOAA active region 3079 in the South as reported
yesterday. The strongest flare was a C6.8 flare peaking at 7:31UTC.
This bipolar region developed a dominant trailing spot and exhibits mixed
polarity field in the intermediate area. The unipolar active regions NOAA
3071 and 3074 were stable while unipolar region NOAA 3078 showed some
growth and became bipolar. The bipolar NOAA active region 3077 has decayed
just as the newly numbered NOAA active region 3080 which was shortlived.
The now bipolar region NOAA 3076 in the north has grown following the new
flux emergence reported yesterday. Another bipolar region has recently
emerged rapidly in the north east (NOAA active region 3081).
All in all, C class flaring is very likely with now also chances for M
class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained above the 1000 pfu threshold
and is expected to remain above or around the threshold in the next 24
hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slow decreasing trend.

Declining high speed Solar wind conditions were recorded. Solar wind speed
decreased from around 575 to just over 500 km/s while the interplanetary
magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic field orientation
showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun).
Over the next 24 hours Solar wind speed is expected to continue the
decreasing trend and slowly return towards slow Solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both local K Dourbes and
NOAA Kp 1-3).
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next
days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 126, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Aug 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 120
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 012
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 009
ESTIMATED ISN          : 109, BASED ON 31 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.