SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2025 Jan 22 1254 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 50122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2025, 1253UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 219 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2025  10CM FLUX: 218 / AP: 050

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over
the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare identified.
The largest flare was a M1.3 flare peaking at 11:08 UTC on Jan 22, which
was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During
the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 9 numbered
sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC
Sunspot Groups 346, 347, 378, and 381 are the complex regions with their
beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected
to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares
expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the coronal mass ejections
(CME) detected at 03:48 UTC on Jan 21 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images, shows that
it has a projected width of about 70 degree and a projected speed of about
800 km/s with the main propagation direction towards North. No
corresponding on-disk source has been identified so it is likely to be
backsided and will not influence the Earth. Another CME has been first
observed in STEREO-A/SECCHI coronograph images at 10:53 UTC on Jan 21. This
CME was associated with a  M3.4 flare, which peaked at 10:39 UTC on Jan 21,
produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 347 (NOAA Active Region 3967, S17 E23) and
the filament eruption near the same AR. Associted type II radio emissions
were detected at 10:27 UTC during the flaring activity. Associated coronal
dimming and EUV wave were also observed. It has a projected width of about
110 deg and a projected speed of about 700 km/s. With its main component in
the SE direction, a glancing blow is expected to influence the Earth on Jan
23-24.

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions are transitioning from fast to slow solar
wind. The solar wind speed ranged from 445 km/s to 575 km/s. The North-
South component (Bz) ranged between -5 nT and 4 nT.  The interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT. In the next 24 hours, we
expect a transition to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to
unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 3), due to the continued
impact of high speed streams from the elongated, negative polarity coronal
hole which crossed the central meridian on Jan 17. We expect quiet to
unsettled conditions (K 1 to 3) in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the
next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the
past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. However,
greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite,
reached above the threshold level at 17:20 UTC on Jan 21 and dropped
finally below the threshold level at 02:20 UTC on Jan 22 in the last 24
hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is
expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 161, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 271
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 225
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 015
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 161, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
22  1044  1108 1135 S11W25 M1.3  S       02/3961      III/1II/2 
END

BT
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