SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Mar 01 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40301
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Mar 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Mar 2024  10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24
hours was at low levels. The largest flares was an C4.0 flare with peak
time at 01:25 UTC on March 1 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). Weaker
C-class flares were observed from NOAA ARs 3590, 3594, 3598, and from a yet
unnumbered region at the east limb of the visible disk. There are currently
7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-
delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced
most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A new active region
(numbered NOAA AR 3598, alpha) emerged on the south-west quadrant of the
visible solar disk (currently around S13W25) and is growing. Meanwhile,
NOAA AR 3592 decayed to a plage. One yet unnumbered active region is
rotating from the east limb (currently around S13E82) and displayed some
flaring activity in the past 24 hours. All other regions were inactive. The
solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming
days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small
chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: Based on currently available coronagraph images, no
Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the past 24
hours.

Solar wind: Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24
hours. Throughout this period, the solar wind speed decreased from about
405 km/s to about 350 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between 1 nT and 6 nT. Around 22:40 UTC on February 29, the passage
of a small magnetic structure induced small jumps in the magnetic field
strength (from 3 nT to 5 nT), and in the solar wind speed (from 375 km/s to
405 km/s). Until 07:10 UTC on March 1, when the magnetic structure ended,
the magnetic field was stable with an intensity of 5 nT and a Bz (north-
south) component around -4 nT. Following the passage of this magnetic
structure, the solar wind speed continued to decline. The phi-angle
remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun),
with a prolonged period in the positive sector (away from the Sun) during
the passage of the magnetic structure. In the next 24 hours, we expect slow
solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally unsettled
(Kp 3 and K Bel 3) during the passage of a small magnetic structure in the
solar wind. Quiet to unsettled conditions are also expected in the next 24
hours.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive
activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was
below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24
hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to
remain so in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 124, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Feb 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 164
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 003
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 128, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #
# Website         http://www.sidc.be.                                #
# E-mail          sidc-support@oma.be                                #
# To unsubscribe  http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php          #
#                                                                    #
# Legal notices:                                                     #
# - Intellectual Property Rights:                                    #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf    #
# - Liability Disclaimer:                                            #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf     #
# - Use and processing of your personal information:                 #
#   http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.