SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

Archive

Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 Jun 12 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40612
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 157 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jun 2024  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 003

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24
hours has been at low levels, with C-class flares only. The strongest flare
was a C9.1 flare peaking at 04:43 UTC, associated with NOAA AR 3697
(previously beta-gamma-delta) which has rotated beyond the visible disk.
There are currently six active regions on the solar disk. The most complex
regions are NOAA AR 3707, 3709 and 3711 (all beta). NOAA AR 3703 and NOAA
AR 3710 have rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3704 has decayed into
plage. Two new ARs, NOAA AR 3712 and NOAA AR 3713 are rotating on disk from
the south-east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low
levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a small
chance of M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: An asymmetric halo CME was first detected around
22:43 on June 11 in SOHO/LASCO-C2. It is most likely backsided and it is
not expected to have an impact on Earth. A Type II radio burst reported at
22:51 UTC on June 11, is most likely associated with this CME. The partial
halo CME detected at 23:36 UTC on June 10 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 is most likely
backsided and it is not expected to have an impact on Earth.

Solar wind: The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values
ranging from 335 km/s to 417 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field
around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -3.8 nT and 5.3 nT. The
interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive
sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet
levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL between 0 and 2). Similar quiet conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours but has increased near the threshold
around 05:00 UTC, possibly as a result of flaring activity from NOAA AR
3697. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24
hours but could increase in case of further events particularly from NOAA
AR 3697.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the
threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and
is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 113, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Jun 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 113
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 165
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 009
AK WINGST              : 013
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 103, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.