SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2023 Feb 03 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30203
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Feb 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Feb 2023 until 05 Feb 2023)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Feb 2023  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 007
COMMENT: There are four active regions visible on the solar disc, all of
them with simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. Solar flaring
activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours, with several C-class
flares detected. The strongest one was a C3.9 flare from a region behind
the west limb, peaking at 02:49 UTC. Further C class flaring is expected.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.  A partial halo CME
was first seen at 00:48 UTC by LASCO C2, erupting towards the NE. This
event is backsided and will not affect the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to
remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to
remain so over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is crossing central meridian,
its associated high speed stream will arrive to the Earth in about 3 days.

The solar wind speed at L1 is at 350 km/s  with an interplanetary magnetic
field around 8 nT, with mostly negative polarity (oriented towards the
Sun). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet locally and unsettled at planetary levels
(K_Dourbes up to 2 and Kp up to  3). Similar conditions expected for the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 068, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 02 Feb 2023
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 090
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 135
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 070, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.