SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2025 Dec 09 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 51209
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Dec 2025, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 185 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 184 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 183 / AP: 020

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the
past 24 hours, with five M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.1
flare (SIDC Flare 6350) peaking at 21:17 UTC on December 8, which was
associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active Region 4294, magnetic
type beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on
the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 709 (NOAA Active
Region 4294). SIDC Sunspot Groups 719, 720 (both magnetic type beta) have
emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA Active
Region 4295) has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is
expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very
likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 607) was observed
in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 22:36 UTC on December 08. The CME
is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is
associated with the M1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6344), peaking at 22:28 UTC on
December 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region
4299). While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing
blow could be possible from late on December 11. Further analysis is
ongoing to better estimate its impact.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE)
reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values varied between
350 km/s and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were mostly
stable around 7 nT until 08:00 UTC on December 09 when they increased up to
9 nT, due to a possible ICME arrival. The Bz component varied between 0 nT
and -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the
negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible over the next
24 hours due to the ongoing ICME influence

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at
quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2, K BEL 1 to 2). Quiet to active conditions
(NOAA Kp 1 to 4), with a small chance of minor storm conditions due to the
ongoing ICME influence, are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES
proton flux was enhanced but remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The 10
MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain so over the next days, with
chances for further enhancements.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 18 and GOES 19 was close to the 1000 pfu threshold but remained mostly
below it in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24
hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at moderate levels and is
expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 157, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Dec 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 186
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 003
AK WINGST              : 001
ESTIMATED AP           : 001
ESTIMATED ISN          : 165, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
08  1242  1305 1321 S17W48 M1.0 SF       21/4294      
08  2113  2117 2125 N28W07 M3.1 SF       21/4294      
08  2204  2228 2245 N22W27 M1.2 SN       24/4299      
09  0037  0058 0117 ////// M2.0          24/4299      
09  0134  0138 0142 ////// M1.1          21/4294      II/2 
09  0741  0747 0751 S26E45 M1.6 SF       21/4294      VI/2III/2 
END

BT
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