SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2022 Aug 14 1234 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20814
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Aug 2022, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Aug 2022 until 16 Aug 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Aug 2022  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at low levels. Several C-flares
occurred in the past 24 hours, the majority of which originated from NOAA
active regions 3079 and 3081. The strongest flare was a C6.7 flare from
NOAA AR 3079 peaking at 13:00 UTC. NOAA ARs 3080 and 3074 have decayed into
plage regions. NOAA AR 3081 has developed rapidly in the north-west of the
solar disk, the remaining active regions are relatively simple and stable.
Solar flaring activity is expected to be a low levels, with C-class flaring
very likely and a chance for M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the
available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above
or around the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was
at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels with a slow
decreasing trend.

The Earth continues to be under the waning influence of a high-speed
stream. The solar wind speed decreased from around 540 to 470 km/s, while
the interplanetary magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic
field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field
away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours solar wind speed is expected to
continue the decreasing trend and slowly return towards slow solar wind
conditions/

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp
1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the
next days.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 123, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Aug 2022
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 124
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 124, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.