SIDC Ursigram

3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Source SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Frequency Daily
Format Encoded data (ISES)
Mail header SIDC Ursigram
SIDC code meu

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Latest issue

:Issued: 2024 May 25 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40525
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 May 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 167 / AP: 016

Solar Active Regions and flaring: There are six visible ARs on the solar
disk. Solar activity has declined in the last 24 hours, since NOAA AR 3679
is rotating over the west limb. It still produced one M-class flare (the
only one of the last 24 hours), M1.4 peaking at 20:25 UTC, and it may still
produce significant flares as it rotates out of view. Old NOAA AR3663,
which produced very high activity in the last rotation, is rotating back
into view over the east limb. NOAA ARs 3685 and 3686 have potential for
M-class flares  For the next 24 hours M-class flares can still be expected.


Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo CME was observed leaving the Sun at
13:25 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, directed towards the east with an angular
width of about 150 degrees and speed close to 600 km/s. This CME is
backsided and will not affect the Earth. A second wide CME (angular width
around 80 degrees) lifted of the NW limb at 10:48 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May,
this CME is not believed to affect the Earth either.


Solar wind: The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 360
km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can
be expected for the next 24 hours.


Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet both at planetary and
local levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 2).Similar conditions can be expected in
the next 24 hours.


Proton flux levels: The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in
the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring
are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next
24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16
was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to
remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence
was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 099, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 135
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 163
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 124, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
24  0628  0706 0721 S07W81 M1.4 SF       06/3679      III/2 
24  0751  0801 0808 S09W81 M1.0 SF       06/3679      
24  2005  2025 2036 ////// M1.4          06/3679      
END

BT
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Details

The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, where
Y is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.

A forecast is given on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.

OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE

DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.


Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.