SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 Dec 11 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41211
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Dec 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase,
but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 007

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the last 24
hours has been at moderate levels, with three M-class flares. The strongest
flare was an M2.7 flare peaking at 10:06 UTC on December 11, associated
with SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920, magnetic type beta).
There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most
complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917, magnetic
type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912, magnetic
type beta-gamma) has rotated behind the west limb but may still exhibit
flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 333 (NOAA Active Region 3919) has
decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 336 (NOAA Active Region 3923,
magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar
flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24
hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A large filament eruption was observed in GOES/SUVI
74 and GOES/SUVI 304 data around 04:30 UTC on December 11, west of SIDC
Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917). No associated coronal mass
ejection (CME) has been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A
filament eruption was observed around 07:00 UTC on December 11 east of SIDC
Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920). A possibly associated, narrow
CME has been observed in LASCO/C2 imagery around 08:00 UTC, lifting off the
northeast quadrant. Due to its source location, it is not expected to
impact the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes: A small, northern, positive polarity coronal hole, SIDC
Coronal Hole 78, has started to cross the central meridian. An associated
high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 14.

Solar wind: The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVER) have returned to the
slow solar wind regime during the last 24 hours. Speed values were mostly
around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were around 5 nT.
The Bz component varied between -6 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic
field angle was in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions
are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions globally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp
2). Geomagnetic conditions locally reached unsettled levels (K BEL 3)
between 11:00 UTC and 14:00 UTC on December 11 and then decreased to quiet
levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet conditions, with a small chance of active
intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the
threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the
threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive
activity.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced starting from 12:25 UTC on December 10 but
remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to
return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron
fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the
next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 132, BASED ON 05 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Dec 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 160
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 172
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 011
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 006
ESTIMATED ISN          : 141, BASED ON 04 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
10  1055  1102 1109 ////// M1.5          ///3922      III/2VI/2 
10  1754  1758 1803 ////// M1.6          ///3922      III/2VI/1 
11  0554  0604 0609 ////// M1.9          47/3922      III/2 
11  1003  1006 1010 N19E16 M2.7 1F       43/3920      
END

BT
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