SIDC ursigram
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | SIDC ursigram |
| SIDC code | tot |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 Jul 02 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40702 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jul 2024, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 171 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 010 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C3.6-flare, with peak time 22:33 UTC on July 01 associated with a yet unnumbered active region behind the east limb. There are currently 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) produced most of the flares in the last 24 hours together with a region or regions behind the east limb. NOAA AR 3723 has turned into a plague region. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and a small chance for a X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 11:24 UTC on July 01, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a M2.17-flare, with peak time 11:02 UTC on July 01. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 14:48 UTC on June 30 in LASCO C2 data, shows that this CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Coronal holes: A small positive polarity high-latitude coronal hole (CH) has started to cross the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream from this CH is not expected to impact the Earth. Solar wind: Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied within 385 – 504 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed late on July 02, due to the possible ICME arrival of a June 29 CME. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-2 K_Bel 1-2). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 203, BASED ON 09 STATIONS. 99999 SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Jul 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 196 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 171 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 195, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 01 1051 1102 1107 S19W38 M2.1 1N 66/3730 III/2 END UMAGF 30503 40702 1004/ 01064 1/011 22222 31112 UMAGF 31523 40702 0000/ 01000 1/006 22212 33211 BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The SIDC ursigram starts with the code SIDC URSIGRAM YMMDD, whereY is the last digit of the year number,
MM is the number of the month,
DD is the day of the month.
Besides the ISES codes like UMAGF, UCOSE and USSPS,
this message contains a forecast on:
the global flare probability,
geomagnetic disturbances,
solar proton events.
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
COMMENT
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
where ISN stands for International Sunspot Number.
OBSERVED SOLAR INDICES FOR THE DAY BEFORE
SUNSPOT INDEX : xxx, the Wolf number observed by Catania
10CM SOLAR FLUX : xxx,
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : xxx,
AK WINGST : xxx,
ESTIMATED AP : xxx,
ESTIMATED ISN : xxx, based on xx stations.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.