GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 07 1256 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU128 UGEOA 30512 40507 1256/ 9930/ 12072 21072 30072 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 008 Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with few M-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES M5.2 flare, which peaked at 06:16 UT on May 07, from NOAA AR 3663. During the flare, the source region (AR 3663) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta), AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta), and AR 3668 (beta-gamma) are the magnetically complex regions which produced all flaring activity over the past 24 hours. All three regions produced M-class flares. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of a coronal mass ejections (CME), detected at 15:36 UTC on May 05 in LASCO C2 data with a projected speed of 325 km/s and a projected width of 118 degree (as measured by Cactus tool), shows a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 10. This CME was associated with the eruption seen around NOAA AR 3664 and AR 3668 on the SE quadrant of the Sun around 14:20 UT on May 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 03. The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s to 600 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 12 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind. Geomagnetism: Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4) due to the continuous arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 03. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 187, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40507 1256/ 06/// 10199 21712 3022/ 4//// 80211 91720 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 06 2137 2148 2158 N25W42 M1.2 2N 84/3663 06 2158 2227 2307 ////// M4.3 84/3663 07 0041 0058 0123 N27W40 M2.6 SF 84/3663 VI/1 07 0558 0616 0627 ////// M5.1 84/3663 07 0818 0823 0840 S19E06 M1.3 SN 86/3664 END UGEOR 30512 40507 1256/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 32404 05052 13532 53002 40423 2/801 54002 44729 2/801 55024 42027 37622 56019 22519 37413 57000 24105 0/101 58004 10107 21304 60000 23517 0/101 61000 25408 0/101 62009 16927 2/801 USSPS 21305 05161 25632 62004 41024 2/801 63002 44630 3/801 64107 42126 57564 80102 21518 57579 82001 23205 0/101 83012 40607 21307 87026 16428 2/802 85007 23117 31410 86001 24707 0/101 USSPS 81202 06010 13322 37063 43325 57517 36001 45927 0/101 35002 41522 2/801 41009 41408 2/801 38056 21620 57522 43004 22717 21309 44001 24308 0/101 45018 15727 2/801 UMAGF 30503 40507 1004/ 06068 1/020 22342 33112 UMAGF 31523 40507 0000/ 06009 1/022 25333 35332 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.