Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with two M-class flares, both from SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 283 (NOAA AR 3854, magnetic type beta-gamma). The first was an M1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2274) peaking at 16:04 UTC and the second an M2.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2275) peaking at 16:33 UTC, both on October 11. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex regions are SIDC SGs 217, 278, 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3848, 3849, 3852, 3854, all magnetic type beta-gamma). A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 data, lifting off the east limb around 18:15 UTC on October 11. The CME is possibly associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. A mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth starting at UTC afternoon of October 15. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
A patchy, positive polarity coronal hole has emerged in the northeast quadrant, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 282 (NOAA AR 3853).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has decreased below the 10 pfu threshold but remains higher than the background. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES18 was enhanced during the last 24 hours but remained below the threshold. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.