Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.0 flare from beyond the west limb, peaking at 22:30 UTC on October 10. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 282 (NOAA AR 3853, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the northeast quadrant. A new active region, SIDC SG 283 (NOAA AR 3854, magnetic type beta-gamma) is now numbered west of SIDC SG 281 (NOAA AR 3852, magnetic type beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
The northern, negative polarity coronal hole reported on October 09 has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midnight on October 11 but may be indistinguishable from the influence of the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival reported on October 10. The southern, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midday on October 13.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was at minor radiation storm levels, with short moderate storm intervals until 03:30 UTC on October 11. It has since decreased below the 10 pfu threshold but currently remains close to it. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was close to the threshold around 15:00 UTC on October 10 but remained below it. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.