A faint almost full halo coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 725) was detected by LASCO/C2 around 07:12 UTC on October 06. The CME is seen by STEREO A/COR2 as a relatively narrow westward eruption lifting off the solar surface around 06:23 UTC. The eruption is associated with a large on-disc dimming and a coronal wave near the disc centre. The CME is related to an M1.4 flaring (SIDC Flare 8666) produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) currently located at N10E10. An associated fast type II radio emission was detected at 05:59 UTC. The CME is estimated to have a projected velocity close to 560 km/s and is expected to have an Earth-directed component. Preliminary analysis suggests possible arrival time on October 09. Minor geomagnetic storm levels can be expected in the UTC afternoon on October 09 with chances of reaching isolated moderate storm levels.

A class M6.7 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2026/10/08 with peak time 15:48UT

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring. A total of 3 numbered sunspot groups are currently identified on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) currently located at N11W18 remains the largest and most complex active region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. It has exhibited new flux emergence and further growth and was responsible for most of the observed flaring activity, including a long-duration C7.9 flare (SIDC Flare 8680) peaking on October 07 at 13:17 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 973 (NOAA Active Region 4545), currently located at N18W24, is the second largest region on the disc. It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma and has produced an isolated low flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 946 (NOAA Active Region 4548) remained simple, stable and inactive and SIDC Sunspot Group 975 (NOAA Active Region 4547) has decayed. A new region (NOAA Active Region 4550) has briefly appeared on October 07 UTC afternoon and decayed by the UTC morning of October 08. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with very likely C-class flares and remaining chances for isolated M-class flaring. A slow and narrow westward coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 726) was observed by STEREO A/COR2 to lift off the solar surface around 13:53 UTC on October 07. The same eruption appeared as a wide, but faint and slow CME first detected by LASCO/C2 around 14:24 UTC on October 07. The event is linked to the long-duration C7.9 flare produced within SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549) with a notable EUV dimming and a coronal wave detected in the SDO/AIA data starting around 13:00 UTC on October 07. The CME speed is estimated to be around 350 km/s and a mild glancing blow might be expected at Earth on October 11. SIDC Coronal Hole 149 (a recurrent mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) continues to reside on the central meridian. A high speed stream related to it might be expected at Earth on October 10, possibly mixed with anticipated ICME arrival signatures related to SIDC CME 725. Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at close to nominal levels with minor enhancements related to activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain close to nominal levels over the 24 hours with possible further enhancements in case of new strong activity related to SIDC Sunspot Group 976 (NOAA Active Region 4549). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was well above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to further exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals. Quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods might be expected for the next 24 hours should any mild high speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 182 reach the Earth. Active to minor storm levels with chances for isolated moderate storms can be expected in the UTC afternoon on October 09 due to an expected ICME arrival. Further active periods with chances for more minor storm levels are possible on October 10 under a waning influence of the expected ICME arrival potentially mixed with anticipated high-speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 149. Unsettled to active levels can be expected on October 11. Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) reflected background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied in the range of 344 to 396 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) remained weak with a maximum value of 5.3 nT and a minimum north-south (Bz) component of - 4.8 nT. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters might register minor enhancements in case of any mild connection to a high-speed stream related to SIDC Coronal Hole 182. More notable enhancements in the solar wind parameters are anticipated on October 09 with an expected ICME arrival of SIDC CME 725. Perturbed solar wind conditions are expected to continue on October 10 with anticipated waning ICME influence, possibly mixed with a new high speed stream arrival related to the negative polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 149. Disturbed conditions might extend to October 11 with anticipated high-speed stream influence possibly mixed with a mild glancing blow arrival of SIDC CME 726.